3 Clubs For 1 European Spot by Eric Howell

There is 1 European spot remaining.
There are 3 teams alive for that spot.
Tottenham. Chelsea. Everton.

Here are the scenarios for that spot to fall the toffee’s way:

First and foremost, here’s the table after Saturday’s matches.
Tottenham is on 59 points (+18 GD) with 4 matches remaining.
Chelsea is on 58 points (+18 GD) with 4 matches remaining.
Everton is on 51 points (+8 GD) with 3 matches remaining.

The minimum our blue boys have to do is get to that 58 point level(2 wins and a draw).
The best they can do is 60 points if they take maximum from the remaining 3 matches.

That’s what they can control.
Now here is where it gets wild and crazy.
The other things that need to happen.

Let’s start with the less convoluted path.

If we are to catch Spurs, Everton need to finish on 60 points.
Spurs must only take 1 point or less from their last 4 matches.
For Everton to finish above Spurs it would be by 1 point(EFC 60 points – THFC 59 points) or by GD(60 points).
If Spurs win a single match or if they draw more than one then this path is closed.

Next is the long and winding road that has 2 major hazards for the people’s club to dodge.

If Everton are to catch Chelsea, Everton need to finish on 58 or 60 points.
First lets start with Chelsea’s league matches.
The London Rent Boys must take 2 points or less from their last 4 matches.
For Everton to finish above Chelski it would be by 2 points(EFC 60 points – CFC 58 points), 1 point(EFC 60 points – CFC 59 points) or by GD(60 points).
If Chelsea win a single league match or if they draw more than 2 then this path is closed.

Hazard #1 Chelsea wins the FA Cup

If this happens then it won’t matter if we finish above Chelsea or not. And here is why.
They will be awarded the Europa spot and not given it to the league
So it would be Top 4 in CL. 5th in Europa. Chelsea in Europa via FA Cup.

Hazard #2 Chelsea wins the Champions League Final

If this happens then it won’t matter if we finish above Chelsea or not. And here is why.
They will be awarded the final Champions League spot. 4th place will drop to Europa, and 5th would take either the FA Cup Spot Chelsea wins or the League Cup not needed by Liverpool if they with the FA Cup. Which explains what would happen if Chelsea win both cup finals.

Clear as mud. But if both Spurs and Chelsea win Sunday all paths to Europa are closed.

COME ON QPR AND BLACKBURN ROVERS!!!

Eric Howell